Crop suitability modeling for rice under future climate scenario in Bhutan

AUTHOR: Ngawang Chhogyel, Mahesh Ghimiray and Kiran Subedi 

ABSTRACT

A crop suitability modeling for rice under the current and projected future climate (2050) under two global emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5) was done using EcoCrop model. The objectives of the study are (1) to assess suitability of rice under the current climatic condition (2) develop crop suitability model for rice under future projected climate, and (3) analyze loss and gain in areas under changing climatic condition to help plan for rice research and development. The model shows that the crop suitability is changing under projected future scenario and the changes in suitability is going to have major effect on rice production in the country. One of the major findings of the study was that, Bhutan could gain in suitability and thus, has opportunity for more initiatives for rice commodity. The gain in area under projected future climate would contribute to rice self sufficiency, thus, calling for enhanced investment in the 12th five year plan and beyond.

KEYWORD:

Climate; Crop modeling; Crop suitability; Rice

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